Optimism and Capitalism

Thinking, Fast and Slow

This flow traces the double role of optimism as an engine of enterprise and a source of costly overconfidence.

increasing

Bearing strength in each event

decreasing

Optimistic Temperament Optimistic Temperament from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Pleasant Bias Resilience Optimists recover from setbacks and often pursue ambitious goals.

Optimistic Temperament from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Pleasant Bias Resilience Optimists recover from setbacks and often pursue ambitious goals.

A Pleasant Bias Resilience Optimists recover from setbacks and often pursue ambitious goals. Risk The same disposition can make failure statistics feel irrelevant.

Entrepreneurial Delusion Entrepreneurial Delusion from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". The Exceptional Venture Success Beliefs Entrepreneurs judge their own businesses as far more likely to succeed than base rates imply.

Entrepreneurial Delusion from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". The Exceptional Venture Success Beliefs Entrepreneurs judge their own businesses as far more likely to succeed than base rates imply.

The Exceptional Venture Success Beliefs Entrepreneurs judge their own businesses as far more likely to succeed than base rates imply. Personal Exemption They treat general failure statistics as facts about someone else.

Competition Neglect Competition Neglect from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Everyone Has a Good Plan Local Focus Firms evaluate their own product and marketing while overlooking rivals' simultaneous ambitions.

Competition Neglect from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Everyone Has a Good Plan Local Focus Firms evaluate their own product and marketing while overlooking rivals' simultaneous ambitions.

Everyone Has a Good Plan Local Focus Firms evaluate their own product and marketing while overlooking rivals' simultaneous ambitions. Excess Entry Too many competitors enter markets that cannot sustain them.

Bold Forecasts Bold Forecasts from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Confidence Under Pressure Narrow Ranges Corporate financial officers issue forecasts far more precise than their knowledge permits.

Bold Forecasts from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Confidence Under Pressure Narrow Ranges Corporate financial officers issue forecasts far more precise than their knowledge permits.

Confidence Under Pressure Narrow Ranges Corporate financial officers issue forecasts far more precise than their knowledge permits. Social Reward Organizations reward confident presentation more readily than honest uncertainty.

The Premortem The Premortem from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Imagining Disaster Future Failure A team assumes its plan has failed and writes the history of the catastrophe.

The Premortem from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Imagining Disaster Future Failure A team assumes its plan has failed and writes the history of the catastrophe.

Imagining Disaster Future Failure A team assumes its plan has failed and writes the history of the catastrophe. Released Doubt The exercise legitimizes dissent before group commitment suppresses it.

At the opening of the final Part 3 chapter

Early in the capitalism chapter

Middle of the capitalism chapter

Later in Part 3

Near the end of Part 3